Fritz Wilson, DR Team Strategist has been in contact with the DR Director for Alabama this morning. Currently assessment is being conducted and the initial wave of teams from Alabama are responding. Please continue to pray and follow here for updates.
Alabama Storms Info
January 24, 2012Where Do Angels Come From
December 8, 2011This was given to the volunteers working out of North Brook Baptist Church in Cullman, Alabama after the April Tornados.
Where Do Angels Come From
Have you ever wondered where angels come from?
well, today I was blessed to be in the midst of some.
Many wore yellow hats and had skin so fair.
While others were tanned with very little hair.
Each was working so hard in their place
Sweat running down the furrows of their face.
They were sharing God’s love, one plate at a time
and standing, working for hours in that chow line.
Their hearts had been touched by so many needs
So they came to Cullman County to help us feed,
The lonely, the hurting, and those still in shock
From losing their homes, their clothes, even their socks.
Some came with chain saws and ladders and things
Showing us everything they had except their angle wings.
They cut down trees and removed lots of debris
And they did all this-no charge- it was free!
These sweet precious angels offered a smile and a hug
And even handed out water by the gallon jug.
The meals they prepared were good and hot
And the folks who ate them appreciated them a lot.
We know God has angles in Heaven to roam
How thankful we are for these He has loaned
To minister to others right here in our town
With joy and laughter and never a frown.
Their lives have truly touched our town with love
And shown us God’s grace from heaven above.
We thank them for coming to lift our heavy load.
And say, God bless you as you travel these roads.
Written by Carol Blair
First Baptist Church of Robertsdale.
TS Maria discussion number 26 courtesy of the National Hurricane Center
September 12, 2011TS Maria discussion number 26 courtesy of the National Hurricane Center. 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130233 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 PM AST MON SEP 12 2011 ALTHOUGH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...MARIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED A BIT CLOSER TO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LESS DEFINED AND THE COVERAGE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS 24 HOURS AGO. WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB UNCHANGED AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION GENERALLY NO DIFFERENT THAN EARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. THE PREVAILING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER MARIA IS NOT LIKELY TO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AFTER ABOUT 60 HOURS...MAKING THE SURVIVAL OF MARIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEYOND THAT TIME QUESTIONABLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. A 96-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS INDICATED...THOUGH THE GUIDANCE IS AMBIGUOUS AS TO WHETHER THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE A VIABLE ENTITY AT THAT TIME. AN ALTERNATIVE AND EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR MARIA TO SUCCUMB TO THE HIGH SHEAR...BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE..AND DISSIPATE. THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CENTER AND NO RECENT MICROWAVE DATA HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT IT APPEARS AS IF MARIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. THE STORM HAS TEMPORARILY BEEN TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES TO ITS EAST AND WEST. WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE CAUGHT UP IN A DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR IN 48-72 HOURS AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND THE SPREAD IS REASONABLY SMALL...MAKING ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. A CREDIBLE 40-KT SHIP REPORT ABOUT 175 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF MARIA WAS USED TO EXPAND THE WIND RADIUS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 21.3N 67.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 22.3N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 24.0N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 26.3N 69.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 29.3N 68.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 37.5N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 48.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
TS Maria Discussion Number 11
September 9, 2011TS Maria Discussion Number 11 Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090850 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011 THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...AS INDICATED BY BUOY 41101 WHICH RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003.7 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK MARIA AROUND 1200 UTC. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS HOSTILE AS IT WAS 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUCH GUIDANCE. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KNOTS. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AS GLOBAL MODELS NOW FORECAST A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. ON THAT BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BUT IT IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN CASE MODELS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT CYCLE. GIVEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 13.8N 56.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 16.0N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 17.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 19.0N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 22.0N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 24.0N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 27.0N 73.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Maria Discuss Number 4
September 7, 2011Tropical Storm Maria Discuss Number 4 courtesy of The National Hurricane Center 000 WTNT44 KNHC 071457 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1100 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011 CONSIDERING THAT THERE WERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND A RECENT ONE WITH STRONGER WINDS...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARIA WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AT THIS TIME AND THE ONLY IMPRESSIVE FEATURE OF THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS A CURVED BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. IN FACT...NEITHER SHIPS NOR LGEM DEVELOPS THE CYCLONE TOO MUCH. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IS THE GFDL AND IT ONLY INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN SUCH GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING ONLY. MARIA IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...WHICH ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...KEEP MARIA ON THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. ONCE MARIA REACHES THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD THEN BEGIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH IS BOUNDED BY THE GFS ON THE NORTH AND THE ECMWF ON THE SOUTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 13.0N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 13.5N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 14.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 14.5N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 15.5N 56.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 17.5N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 20.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 23.0N 70.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
September 3, 2011Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center 000 WTNT43 KNHC 030857 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011 SURFACE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT LEE HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS NOW NEAR 45 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 995 MB. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO HAVE AN ELONGATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...AND THIS...COMBINED WITH THE GENERAL APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGESTS THAT LEE HAS AT LEAST SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH VERY CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE CENTER HAS TENDED TO REFORM FROM TIME TO TIME...WHICH MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION OF 345/6 RATHER UNCERTAIN. MOST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE NOW AGREES THAT LEE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 48 HR AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH SLOWLY WEAKENS...FIRST GENERALLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THEN GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER 48 HR...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE EXACT SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...THEN LIES NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FROM 36 HOURS ONWARD. GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT ISSUES WITH SHEAR AND DRY AIR HAVE NOT YET SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED DEVELOPMENT...LEE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL IS LIKELY TO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL TO THE THE MARSHY NATURE OF THE LOUISIANA COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF THE CIRCULATION THAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER WATER. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEE IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE WINDS AND RAINS OF LEE EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER...SO IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 28.8N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 29.3N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 30.0N 91.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 30.5N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0600Z 31.0N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0600Z 32.5N 88.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/0600Z 35.0N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/0600Z 37.0N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
September 3, 2011Hurricane Katia Discussion Courtesy of The National Hurricane Center. 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030900 TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 500 AM AST SAT SEP 03 2011 KATIA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE THIS MORNING WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTION FORMING AN UNSHAPELY CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED EITHER WITH THE HURRICANE HAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A LITTLE LOWER THAN EARLIER...BUT STILL SUPPORT 65 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT WERE A LITTLE WEAKER GIVEN THE RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME DRY AIR CONTINUE TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATIA...HOWEVER...HAS BEEN WEAKENING...AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE STARTING ON SUNDAY. THUS SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED AT THAT TIME IN THE NHC FORECAST. AFTERWARD...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD BECOME RATHER LOW BY DAY 4 AS AN UPPER-HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE KATIA MOVES OVER 29C WATER TEMPERATURES. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE EARLY ON...NEAREST THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS...BUT THEN IS BLENDED A LITTLE HIGHER AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE NHC FORECAST...BUT THEY ARE PROBABLY NOT HANDLING THE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT CORRECTLY. KATIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KT. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEP THIS GENERAL TRACK GOING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE UKMET MODEL HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE...WHICH FORCES THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD COURSE CLOSER TO THE BAHAMAS. THIS WESTWARD TRACK SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY DUE TO A PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE UKMET SOLUTION IS DISREGARDED FOR THIS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD TONIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEING A BIT STRONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR AS THE MOST RECENT ECMWF/GFS/GFDL MODEL SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.3N 55.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.1N 56.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.1N 57.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 22.2N 59.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 23.4N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 26.0N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 28.5N 67.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 31.0N 70.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Florida Baptist Convention Disaster Relief Update 9-2-2011
September 2, 2011Florida Baptist Convention Disaster Relief Update
Friday, September 02, 2011
Florida Baptist Disaster Relief (FLBDR) continues to respond to Washington, NC to damage caused by Hurricane Irene.
- We currently have over 150 volunteers who have served over 400 volunteer days.
- In addition to the Lake Yale Mobile Kitchen, there are: 8 cleanup units, 3 skid steer loaders/tractors, 3 shower trailers, 2 generator trailers, command trailer.
- Today, (Friday) our feeding unit will have been in operation for 4 days. We have prepared over 20,000 meals by the end of today.
- As of yesterday we had completed over 42 chainsaw jobs. (Understand that 6 of chainsaw units arrived Tuesday night and yesterday was their first day.)
- Our heavy equipment (tractors/skid steer loaders) have helped on 13 of those jobs.
- We have provided over 300 showers.
- In addition to our work in NC, Eddie Blackmon is serving as the SBC DR Liaison at ARC national office.
Operational Outlook
- FLBDR is serving in partnership with North Carolina Baptist Men. (NCBM) The NCBM website is www.ncmissions.org
- Terry Ryan is serving as the FLBDR Site Commander in Washington, NC
- Feeding will continue through Labor Day weekend and into next week. We will continue to rotate feeding teams as needed
- Cleanup work should continue for at least another 2 weeks. We will be rotating teams as needed.
- This is the 2nd response where we have deployed our Communications Ministry Emergency Response Teams. These teams provide radio communications, on-site security and a medical person for our volunteers. (Alabama tornadoes was the first.)
Hurricane Irene Discussion 28 Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center
August 27, 2011Hurricane Irene Discussion 28 Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center 000 WTNT44 KNHC 270857 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COASTAL RADAR DATA SHOW THAT IRENE HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN THE RADAR DATA. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF IRENE IS STARTING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE HURRICANE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONTINUES TO OBSERVE 90-100 KT WINDS AT 700 MB OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES FROM THE SFMR HAVE ONLY BEEN 70-75 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 952 MB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/12. IRENE IS WEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER MOVING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THEN OVER NEW ENGLAND. AFTER 48 HOURS... THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES THE CORE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. LAND INTERACTION...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE IRENE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WITH A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE NEW ENGLAND LANDFALL...WITH IRENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM 48-120 HR. THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS DECREASED TO THE POINT THAT WE WILL BE REVERTING TO THREE-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 34.1N 76.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 35.7N 75.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/0600Z 38.4N 74.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 28/1800Z 41.9N 72.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/0600Z 46.3N 69.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/0600Z 54.0N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0600Z 57.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0600Z 58.0N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Irene Discussion 27 – Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center
August 26, 2011Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center 000 WTNT44 KNHC 270258 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE FOUND SURFACE PRESSURES OF 950-951 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS RANGING FROM 99 KT TO 108 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF IRENE. HOWEVER...SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH LOWER THAN THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR TYPICALLY YIELDS. THIS DISPARITY IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY HAVE BEEN INDICATING VIGOROUS CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF THE RAGGED EYE...WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 90 KT OR GREATER AT ALTITUDE ABOVE 15000 FEET. BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF IRENE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT. RADAR AND RECON FIXES INDICATE IRENE HAS MADE THE LONG-FORECAST TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NOW AND IS MOVING AT 020/12 KT. IRENE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP IRENE CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE TRACK FORECAST LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 12-18 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER LANDFALL...HOWEVER...LAND INTERACTION... COOLER WATER...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO THE VERY LARGE CIRCULATION OF IRENE. THIS SHOULD DELAY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL IRENE IS OVER MAINE OR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 32.6N 76.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 34.2N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 36.7N 75.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 39.8N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 43.8N 71.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/0000Z 52.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0000Z 56.5N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z 57.5N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER STEWART
