Florida Baptist Disaster Relief Ministry News & Updates

Alabama Storms Info

DR Assoc Dir — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 13:04:16 +0000

Fritz Wilson, DR Team Strategist has been in contact with the DR Director for Alabama this morning. Currently assessment is being conducted and the initial wave of teams from Alabama are responding. Please continue to pray and follow here for updates.

Where Do Angels Come From

DR Assoc Dir — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 17:58:32 +0000

This was given to the volunteers working out of North Brook Baptist Church in Cullman, Alabama after the April Tornados.

Where Do Angels Come From

Have you ever wondered where angels come from?

well, today I was blessed to be in the midst of some.

Many wore yellow hats and had skin so fair.

While others were tanned with very little hair.

Each was working so hard in their place

Sweat running down the furrows of their face.

They were sharing God’s love, one plate at a time

and standing, working for hours in that chow line.

Their hearts had been touched by so many needs

So they came to Cullman County to help us feed,

The lonely, the hurting, and those still in shock

From losing their homes, their clothes, even their socks.

Some came with chain saws and ladders and things

Showing us everything they had except their angle wings.

They cut down trees and removed lots of debris

And they did all this-no charge- it was free!

These sweet precious angels offered a smile and a hug

And even handed out water by the gallon jug.

The meals they prepared were good and hot

And the folks who ate them appreciated them a lot.

We know God has angles in Heaven to roam

How thankful we are for these He has loaned

To minister to others right here in our town

With joy and laughter and never a frown.

Their lives have truly touched our town with love

And shown us God’s grace from heaven above.

We thank them for coming to lift our heavy load.

And say, God bless you as you travel these roads.

Written by Carol Blair

First Baptist Church of Robertsdale.

TS Maria discussion number 26 courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

DR Assoc Dir — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 03:38:18 +0000

TS Maria discussion number 26 courtesy of the National Hurricane Center.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 130233
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
1100 PM AST MON SEP 12 2011

ALTHOUGH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...MARIA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED A BIT CLOSER TO THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGES SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LESS DEFINED AND
THE COVERAGE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS 24 HOURS
AGO. WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB UNCHANGED AND THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION GENERALLY NO DIFFERENT THAN EARLIER...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT.  THE PREVAILING WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER MARIA IS NOT LIKELY TO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AFTER
ABOUT 60 HOURS...MAKING THE SURVIVAL OF MARIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEYOND THAT TIME QUESTIONABLE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A 96-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS
INDICATED...THOUGH THE GUIDANCE IS AMBIGUOUS AS TO WHETHER THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE A VIABLE ENTITY AT THAT TIME. AN
ALTERNATIVE AND EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR MARIA TO
SUCCUMB TO THE HIGH SHEAR...BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE..AND
DISSIPATE.

THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CENTER AND NO RECENT MICROWAVE DATA HAS
MADE IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT IT APPEARS AS
IF MARIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD.  THE
STORM HAS TEMPORARILY BEEN TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES TO ITS EAST AND WEST.  WITHIN ABOUT 24
HOURS...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE CAUGHT UP IN A DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.  AN
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR
IN 48-72 HOURS AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND
THE SPREAD IS REASONABLY SMALL...MAKING ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES
NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.

A CREDIBLE 40-KT SHIP REPORT ABOUT 175 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OF MARIA WAS USED TO EXPAND THE WIND RADIUS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 21.3N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 22.3N  68.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 24.0N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 26.3N  69.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 29.3N  68.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 37.5N  64.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 48.5N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

TS Maria Discussion Number 11

DR Assoc Dir — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 11:04:25 +0000

TS Maria Discussion Number 11 Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

000
WTNT44 KNHC 090850
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE FALLING...AS INDICATED BY BUOY 41101 WHICH RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003.7 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL
CHECK MARIA AROUND 1200 UTC. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS
NOT AS HOSTILE AS IT WAS 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO...AND THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT
MORE AGGRESSIVE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUCH GUIDANCE.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17
KNOTS. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AS GLOBAL
MODELS NOW FORECAST A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. ON THAT BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BUT IT IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEW
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN CASE MODELS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH IN THE
NEXT CYCLE.  GIVEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 13.8N  56.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 14.5N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 16.0N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 17.5N  63.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 19.0N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 22.0N  69.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 24.0N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 27.0N  73.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Tropical Storm Maria Discuss Number 4

DR Assoc Dir — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 19:57:24 +0000

Tropical Storm Maria Discuss Number 4 courtesy of The National Hurricane Center

000
WTNT44 KNHC 071457
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011

CONSIDERING THAT THERE WERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS AND A RECENT ONE WITH STRONGER WINDS...THE DEPRESSION HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARIA WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
45 KNOTS. THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AT THIS TIME AND THE ONLY
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE OF THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS A CURVED BAND TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. IN FACT...NEITHER SHIPS NOR
LGEM DEVELOPS THE CYCLONE TOO MUCH. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IS
THE GFDL AND IT ONLY INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN SUCH GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING ONLY.

MARIA IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. MOST OF
THE TRACK MODELS...WHICH ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...KEEP MARIA ON
THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
ONCE MARIA REACHES THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 3
DAYS...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD THEN BEGIN.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
WHICH IS BOUNDED BY THE GFS ON THE NORTH AND THE ECMWF ON THE
SOUTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 13.0N  42.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 13.5N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 14.0N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 14.5N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 15.5N  56.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 17.5N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 20.0N  66.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 23.0N  70.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

DR Assoc Dir — Sat, 03 Sep 2011 13:13:48 +0000

Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center
000
WTNT43 KNHC 030857
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

SURFACE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT LEE HAS STRENGTHENED A
LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS NOW
NEAR 45 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 995 MB.  THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO HAVE AN ELONGATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND A LARGE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...AND THIS...COMBINED WITH THE GENERAL
APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGESTS THAT LEE HAS AT LEAST
SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING
ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH VERY CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM...AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE STORM.

THE CENTER HAS TENDED TO REFORM FROM TIME TO TIME...WHICH MAKES THE
INITIAL MOTION OF 345/6 RATHER UNCERTAIN.  MOST TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW AGREES THAT LEE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 48 HR
AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH SLOWLY WEAKENS...FIRST GENERALLY NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THEN GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD.  AFTER 48
HR...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SHOULD CAUSE A
FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE EXACT SPEED.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...THEN LIES
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FROM 36 HOURS ONWARD.

GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT ISSUES WITH SHEAR AND DRY AIR HAVE NOT YET
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED DEVELOPMENT...LEE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL.  WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL IS LIKELY
TO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL TO THE THE MARSHY NATURE OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF THE CIRCULATION THAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER
WATER.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEE IS FORECAST TO MERGE
WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...A SOMEWHAT
UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE WINDS AND RAINS OF LEE EXTEND FAR FROM
THE CENTER...SO IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 28.8N  91.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 29.3N  92.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 30.0N  91.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1800Z 30.5N  91.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/0600Z 31.0N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  06/0600Z 32.5N  88.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  07/0600Z 35.0N  86.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  08/0600Z 37.0N  82.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21

DR Assoc Dir — Sat, 03 Sep 2011 13:11:12 +0000

Hurricane Katia Discussion Courtesy of The National Hurricane Center.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 030900
TCDAT2

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011
500 AM AST SAT SEP 03 2011

KATIA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE THIS MORNING WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTION
FORMING AN UNSHAPELY CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE OVERALL PATTERN
IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED EITHER WITH THE HURRICANE HAVING TROUBLE
MAINTAINING BANDING FEATURES.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER THAN EARLIER...BUT STILL SUPPORT 65 KT ON THIS
ADVISORY. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT WERE A LITTLE WEAKER
GIVEN THE RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE.

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME DRY AIR CONTINUE TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST OF KATIA...HOWEVER...HAS BEEN WEAKENING...AND MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE STARTING ON
SUNDAY.  THUS SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED AT THAT TIME IN THE
NHC FORECAST.  AFTERWARD...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD BECOME RATHER
LOW BY DAY 4 AS AN UPPER-HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WHILE KATIA MOVES OVER 29C WATER TEMPERATURES.  THE NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE EARLY ON...NEAREST THE LGEM/SHIPS
MODELS...BUT THEN IS BLENDED A LITTLE HIGHER AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.   BOTH THE HWRF
AND GFDL ARE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE NHC FORECAST...BUT
THEY ARE PROBABLY NOT HANDLING THE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT CORRECTLY.

KATIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KT.  ALMOST
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEP THIS GENERAL TRACK GOING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE UKMET MODEL HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY FORECASTING
A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE...WHICH FORCES THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD
COURSE CLOSER TO THE BAHAMAS.  THIS WESTWARD TRACK SEEMS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY DUE TO A PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE UKMET SOLUTION IS DISREGARDED FOR THIS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD
TONIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BEING A BIT STRONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR AS THE
MOST RECENT ECMWF/GFS/GFDL MODEL SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 19.3N  55.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 20.1N  56.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 21.1N  57.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 22.2N  59.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 23.4N  61.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 26.0N  64.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 28.5N  67.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 31.0N  70.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Florida Baptist Convention Disaster Relief Update 9-2-2011

DR Assoc Dir — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 19:39:38 +0000

Florida Baptist Convention Disaster Relief Update

Friday, September 02, 2011

Florida Baptist Disaster Relief (FLBDR) continues to respond to Washington, NC to damage caused by Hurricane Irene.

We currently have over 150 volunteers who have served over 400 volunteer days.
In addition to the Lake Yale Mobile Kitchen, there are: 8 cleanup units, 3 skid steer loaders/tractors, 3 shower trailers, 2 generator trailers, command trailer.
Today, (Friday) our feeding unit will have been in operation for 4 days. We have prepared over 20,000 meals by the end of today.
As of yesterday we had completed over 42 chainsaw jobs. (Understand that 6 of chainsaw units arrived Tuesday night and yesterday was their first day.)
Our heavy equipment (tractors/skid steer loaders) have helped on 13 of those jobs.
We have provided over 300 showers.
In addition to our work in NC, Eddie Blackmon is serving as the SBC DR Liaison at ARC national office.

Operational Outlook

FLBDR is serving in partnership with North Carolina Baptist Men. (NCBM) The NCBM website is www.ncmissions.org
Terry Ryan is serving as the FLBDR Site Commander in Washington, NC
Feeding will continue through Labor Day weekend and into next week. We will continue to rotate feeding teams as needed
Cleanup work should continue for at least another 2 weeks. We will be rotating teams as needed.
This is the 2^nd response where we have deployed our Communications Ministry Emergency Response Teams. These teams provide radio communications, on-site security and a medical person for our volunteers. (Alabama tornadoes was the first.)

Hurricane Irene Discussion 28 Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

DR Assoc Dir — Sat, 27 Aug 2011 10:45:00 +0000

Hurricane Irene Discussion 28 Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center
000
WTNT44 KNHC 270857
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COASTAL RADAR DATA SHOW THAT IRENE HAS LOST
SOME ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING.  THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE IS A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN THE RADAR DATA.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST
OF IRENE IS STARTING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE HURRICANE.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONTINUES TO OBSERVE 90-100 KT
WINDS AT 700 MB OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES FROM THE SFMR HAVE ONLY BEEN 70-75 KT.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE
GENEROUS.  DESPITE THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 952 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/12.  IRENE IS WEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER MOVING
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THEN OVER NEW ENGLAND.  AFTER 48 HOURS...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES THE CORE OF THE
WESTERLIES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

LAND INTERACTION...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE IRENE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE U.S.
EAST COAST.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE WITH A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW
ENGLAND.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE NEW
ENGLAND LANDFALL...WITH IRENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM 48-120 HR.

THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS DECREASED TO THE
POINT THAT WE WILL BE REVERTING TO THREE-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORIES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 34.1N  76.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 35.7N  75.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 24H  28/0600Z 38.4N  74.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  28/1800Z 41.9N  72.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 48H  29/0600Z 46.3N  69.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  30/0600Z 54.0N  59.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/0600Z 57.0N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/0600Z 58.0N  23.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Irene Discussion 27 – Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

DR Assoc Dir — Sat, 27 Aug 2011 03:03:13 +0000

Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

000
WTNT44 KNHC 270258
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HAVE FOUND SURFACE PRESSURES OF 950-951 MB AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS RANGING FROM 99 KT TO 108 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF IRENE. HOWEVER...SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH
LOWER THAN THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR TYPICALLY
YIELDS. THIS DISPARITY IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA
FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY HAVE BEEN INDICATING VIGOROUS
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF THE RAGGED EYE...WITH
DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 90 KT OR GREATER AT ALTITUDE ABOVE 15000
FEET. BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONGER
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
IRENE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT.

RADAR AND RECON FIXES INDICATE IRENE HAS MADE THE LONG-FORECAST TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NOW AND IS MOVING AT 020/12 KT. IRENE IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST
TRACK HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP IRENE
CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE
TRACK FORECAST LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS.

IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C UNTIL
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 12-18 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR ONLY
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER LANDFALL...HOWEVER...LAND INTERACTION...
COOLER WATER...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH A STATIONARY
FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO THE VERY LARGE CIRCULATION OF
IRENE. THIS SHOULD DELAY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL IRENE IS
OVER MAINE OR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 32.6N  76.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 34.2N  76.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 36.7N  75.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 39.8N  74.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 43.8N  71.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/0000Z 52.0N  62.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/0000Z 56.5N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/0000Z 57.5N  26.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART